Two days after falling below 60 dollars, silver is making a strong comeback. On Friday 9 October, at around 6 pm Belgian time, Kitco quoted 60.83 dollars per troy ounce, 1.76 dollars or 2.98 percent higher than on Thursday. During the session the price reached 61.30 dollars, almost 4 percent above the previous day’s close. At the same time TradingEconomics showed 60.96 dollars and a gain of 3.01 percent.
Gold joined in, but more calmly. Kitco had the yellow metal at 4,191.10 dollars at the same time, up 1.39 percent. TradingEconomics cites 4,191 dollars, the highest level in a week. On Friday morning gold briefly touched 4,208 dollars, before slipping back below the 4,200 mark.
Why the silver price is rising today
The main trigger came from the Middle East. President Trump said the United States will not attack Iran before the midterm elections of 3 November, and that talks are productive. As a result the oil price fell, Reuters reports via Kitco. Cheaper oil eases fears about inflation, which makes new interest rate hikes in the United States a little less urgent.
The dollar helped too. The American currency weakened on Friday, which makes gold and silver cheaper for buyers in Europe and Asia. That attracts demand. According to the FedWatch tool of exchange group CME, the market puts the chance of a rate hike this month at less than 20 percent. The chance of at least one hike by December remains above 80 percent, however.
For silver, something else is at play. The metal had lost a lot of ground in recent days and on Thursday stood at its lowest level in two months, according to TradingEconomics. After such a fall a sharp rebound often follows, and because the silver market is small, that rebound is bigger than for gold.
Gloomy American consumer sentiment
At 4 pm Belgian time the first consumer sentiment figure for October came out. The University of Michigan measures it every month. The figure fell to 46.3, compared with 48.1 in September. Economists had expected 47.6. It is the lowest level since the record low of May, when the figure stood at 44.8, TradingEconomics reports. Kitco saw gold stay close to its high of the day after the release.
At the same time inflation expectations rose. Americans expect 4.7 percent inflation over the next year, compared with 4.6 percent a month earlier. In the long term they expect 3.5 percent. That combination is awkward for the Fed. A gloomy consumer points to a cooling economy, but higher inflation expectations keep the pressure on rates. Alberto Musalem of the St. Louis Fed said on Friday that further tightening may be needed to bring inflation back to 2 percent, TradingEconomics reports.
What this means if you want to sell silver
Anyone with silver cutlery, an old dish or a box of silver coins sees the price swing sharply up and down within a few days. On Wednesday silver was still diving below 60 dollars, as we wrote at the time in our piece on silver below 60 dollars and gold below 4,100. On Friday it is back above that level. Swings like these are typical of silver.
For your own pieces nothing changes. A spoon of 800 parts per thousand or a coin of 835 parts per thousand contains a fixed amount of pure silver. The price only determines what that amount is worth on a given day. How we tell solid silver from silver plate and weigh it correctly is explained on our page about how to sell silver.
Silver recovered almost 3 percent on Friday after Wednesday's fall, helped by cheaper oil, a weaker dollar and gloomy American consumer sentiment. The price swings a lot, but the silver in your pieces stays the same. Have the weight and fineness determined correctly and ask for the price of the day itself.
Gold stays just below 4,200 dollars
For anyone looking to sell gold rings, chains or coins, the picture is calmer. Gold gains more than 1 percent on Friday, but stays just below the round 4,200 dollar mark. Over the month the yellow metal is still down almost 3 percent according to TradingEconomics, over the year it is up more than 4 percent. The January peak, when gold stood above 5,500 dollars, remains far away.
The current price in euros is on our gold price today page. If you have old or broken jewellery, our page about how to sell jewellery explains how we determine fineness and weight and what to look out for.
What counts in the coming weeks
Whether silver’s recovery holds depends mainly on the oil price and on the Fed. The final consumer sentiment figure follows on 23 October. At the end of October the Fed meets again on rates. The market expects no change then, but still considers a hike in December likely. Any new twist around Iran can quickly turn the oil price, and with it gold and silver.