On Wednesday 16 September at 8 pm Belgian time, the Federal Reserve did what the market had expected for weeks. The US central bank raised its policy rate by a quarter point to a range of 3.75 to 4 percent. The decision was unanimous, 12 votes to 0. It is the first rate hike since July 2023.
Gold reacted in two stages. When the decision was published, the metal still held above 4,300 dollars per troy ounce. It was only during the press conference of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh that the price gave way. From a daily high of 4,361.30 dollars, gold slid to around 4,256.50 dollars, down almost 1 percent on the previous day, Kitco reports. Silver ended the day near 62.82 dollars, down 1.16 percent.
The tone, not the decision, weighed on the gold price
That the Fed would hike was already priced in. According to the FedWatch tool of exchange group CME, the odds were above 90 percent. What did surprise the market was the resolve with which Warsh explained the decision. In his opening statement he said:
“The plain fact is that inflation is too high and has been for too long.”
Kevin Warsh, Chair of the Federal Reserve, press conference of 16 September 2026 (official transcript)
Warsh pointed out that inflation has been above the 2 percent target for more than five years, while in his view the US economy is actually getting stronger. That is a different tone from a one off hike to absorb an oil shock. It is the same line he set out in Jackson Hole at the end of August, when gold lost 3 percent in a single day.
The bond market responded straight away. The ten year US yield climbed back to 5 percent and the dollar firmed. For gold, which pays no interest, that is an unfavourable combination.
The dot plot points to one more hike
More important than Wednesday’s decision are the new projections the Fed published at the same time. In the Summary of Economic Projections, the median policy rate for the end of 2026 now stands at 4.1 percent. In June it was still 3.8 percent. With rates now between 3.75 and 4 percent, the median therefore assumes one more hike before the end of the year. The Fed still meets in October and December. For the end of 2027 the median is also 4.1 percent, against 3.6 percent in June.
Inflation expectations went up as well. The Fed now expects inflation of 3.7 percent in 2026, and 3.4 percent excluding food and energy. In June those figures were 3.6 and 3.3 percent. It sees unemployment coming in lower than previously thought, at 4.1 percent.
On Thursday the gold price recovers
The scare did not last. On Thursday morning at 9:52 Belgian time, Kitco quoted gold at 4,330.30 dollars, 1.58 percent higher than on Wednesday evening. Slightly earlier, TradingEconomics showed 4,307.91 dollars, up 1.04 percent. Silver again did better, at 64.24 dollars, a gain of 2.20 percent. According to TradingEconomics, oil prices fell further on reports that Saudi Arabia wants to restore a key pipeline faster, which eased inflation worries somewhat.
Converted at Wednesday’s European Central Bank reference rate of 1.1537 dollars per euro, that comes to roughly 3,750 euros per troy ounce of pure gold. You can follow the current price in euros every working day on our page about today’s gold price.
What this means if you want to sell gold
A rate hike sounds like big news, and for financial markets it is. For anyone with a box of old jewellery, a broken bracelet or a few coins at home, the picture is more sober. Gold lost about 2.4 percent from its Wednesday evening high and won back a large part of that the next morning. Look at one evening and you see a fall. Look at two days and you see a swing.
What you receive depends first of all on the weight and purity of your pieces, and on the price at the moment of the sale itself. The factors that count are explained on our page about how to sell old gold.
The Fed raised rates and left the door open to more. That puts pressure on gold, but over the past two days the price mostly moved back and forth. Have the weight and purity of your pieces assessed first, and ask for the price of the day itself.
Silver remains the more sensitive of the two
Silver moves harder than gold in both directions. It lost more on Wednesday and is winning back more on Thursday. We saw the same pattern last week, when silver lost more than 5 percent in a single day on the day the European Central Bank raised its rates. Silver is a smaller market and much of its demand comes from industry, which is sensitive to higher rates. What counts for cutlery, coins and old jewellery is explained on our page about how to sell silver.
What comes next
The next tests are close. On Thursday new US figures on jobless claims and manufacturing are due, and the Fed meets again in October. As long as inflation stays high and the ten year yield hovers around 5 percent, gold will remain sensitive to every word from Warsh.