On Wednesday 8 July 2026, the gold price fell firmly. Gold slid from over 4,100 dollars towards 4,050 dollars per troy ounce, more than 2 percent below Tuesday evening’s closing rate. Silver fell harder still, from almost 61 dollars to about 58 dollars, a drop of more than 4 percent. Kitco News and Investing.com reported this. The striking thing: it happened precisely on a day when the war between the US and Iran flared up again. Normally something like that drives gold up. This time the opposite happened.
What exactly happened on Wednesday
The United States carried out new air strikes against Iran overnight, in retaliation for Iranian attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, Washington revoked the licence that allowed Iran to sell its oil. Iran answered with attacks on targets in Bahrain and Kuwait, NPR reported.
On top of that came a statement. US president Donald Trump declared at a NATO summit in Turkey that the fragile truce with Iran was as good as dead, and accused Tehran of double dealing.
As far as I'm concerned, it's over.
This time different from January
It is not the first time this conflict has shaken the gold market. When tensions between the US and Iran first escalated earlier this year, gold climbed at the end of January to a historic record of 5,589 dollars. A truce in mid-June brought calm, and the rate fell back in recent months towards 4,000 to 4,200 dollars. This week that truce collapses again, but the market reaction is completely different from January.
Why a war can precisely push the gold price down
Gold has for centuries been the classic shelter for savings when something goes wrong somewhere in the world. In times of war the gold price therefore usually rises. This week precisely the opposite happened, and that has everything to do with oil.
The attacks near the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial shipping route for oil tankers, pushed the oil price sharply higher. More expensive oil feeds the fear of higher inflation. And with more inflation, the US central bank, the Fed, usually keeps rates high for longer. A higher rate makes saving and bonds more attractive than gold, which pays no interest itself. So a war can precisely put the gold price under pressure. The diagram below shows that chain step by step.
How a war pushes the gold price down
Wednesday’s figures confirm that chain. Kitco News noted a barrel of WTI crude oil at 74.93 dollars and Brent at 78.73 dollars, both sharply higher. The priced-in chance of a US rate hike in September climbed to 68 percent. The yield on ten-year US Treasuries rose to 4.58 percent and the dollar traded at its strongest since 2 July. All those factors together weighed more heavily than the flight to safety a war usually brings.
Fed minutes and a divided policy committee
On Wednesday evening the Fed publishes the minutes of its meeting of 16 and 17 June. They are closely followed. The accompanying rate forecasts already showed that the policy committee is deeply divided: nine members expect at least one more rate hike this year, eight expect no change, and one even reckons with a cut. Notably, Fed chair Kevin Warsh submitted no rate forecast of his own, the first chair to do so since this reporting began in 2012. Tonight’s minutes should make clear which camp within the Fed made its voice heard loudest, and that weighs directly on the real interest rate, the main brake on the gold price this year.
What a falling rate means for those wanting to sell old gold
For anyone with old gold, jewellery or coins in a drawer, this week mainly illustrates one thing: the gold rate is especially capricious and cannot be guessed from news headlines alone. A war that escalates suggests gold automatically becomes more expensive, but this week proves the opposite. Anyone waiting for the perfect moment to sell old gold may be waiting for something that never comes.
The gold price changes daily, sometimes sharply within a few hours, based on rate decisions, oil prices and geopolitical news. The weight and carat fineness of your pieces stay unchanged in the meantime. A no-obligation valuation shows you exactly what your gold is worth today, so you can decide yourself whether to sell.
For those wanting to sell silver too, old cutlery, jewellery or coins, the message is similar. The price fell this week from 60.86 to 58.30 dollars per ounce, a drop driven as much by rate expectations as by the oil price. So do not look only at a single day’s rate, but also get yourself informed about the purity of your pieces: solid silver contains a different fineness than silver-plated cutlery.
In short
Despite renewed US strikes on Iran, Iranian retaliation against Bahrain and Kuwait and president Trump’s statement that the truce is over, the gold price fell on Wednesday towards 4,050 dollars. The reason lies not in a lack of tension, but in the oil price that fuels inflation fear and lifts rate expectations. Tonight follow the long-awaited Fed minutes, which should further clarify the direction of rates. For those wanting to sell old gold or silver, the lesson stays the same: today’s rate is never guaranteed to be tomorrow’s rate.