Gold traded at around 4,374 dollars per troy ounce on the morning of Tuesday 1 September, a loss of almost 67 dollars or roughly 1.5 percent on the day. With that, the round level of 4,400 dollars gave way. More telling still is the picture across a full week. Exactly seven days earlier, on Tuesday 25 August, spot gold stood at 4,653.40 dollars according to Kitco. The price therefore surrendered almost 6 percent in a week. Silver followed it down to 64.93 dollars, more than 2 percent lower on the day and about 5 percent lower than a week ago. The striking part is that this same week did bring war news, and that it made no difference.
The entire Jackson Hole week has been handed back
In late August gold was still running ahead of the very first speech by Kevin Warsh as chairman of the American central bank. That speech landed differently than hoped. Warsh put inflation first and kept a rate hike firmly on the table, after which gold lost 3.14 percent in a single day and silver more than 4 percent. On Monday the price slipped a little further, and on Tuesday morning another one and a half percent was added. Added up, the whole run into Jackson Hole has been wiped out.
Rate expectations are the engine behind that move. The probability of a September rate hike, as priced by the market, climbed from roughly 36 percent before the speech to more than 60 percent after it. The yield on two year American government paper jumped almost 12 basis points and longer maturities followed. Anyone tracking the current gold price has seen the metal stuck in a falling channel ever since.
A strike near Hormuz that failed to lift the price
On Sunday 30 August American forces destroyed Iranian rocket launchers near the Strait of Hormuz. It was the first American military action in a month. According to United States Central Command, units of the Revolutionary Guard were preparing rockets loaded with sea mines to be fired into the strait. Iranian media reported explosions near the island of Larak. Iran announced retaliation immediately. Speaking for the Guard, General Hossein Mohebi called the strike “a fatal mistake by the Trump regime during the economic war”.
The oil market reacted as expected. Brent climbed almost 2 percent and held around 90 dollars a barrel, American crude moved above 86 dollars. The gold market did not react as expected. That is where this week gets interesting.
Why war news works against gold through the oil channel
Geopolitical fear no longer reaches gold directly. It travels through the oil price first, then through inflation expectations, and only after that through interest rate policy. By the time it arrives at gold, it has turned from a tailwind into a headwind. More expensive oil means more stubborn inflation, more stubborn inflation means a greater chance of a rate hike, and because gold pays no interest of its own it loses appeal the moment government paper pays more. Kitco described the situation as a conflicted setup. The military action supports safe haven demand, but the costlier oil simultaneously strengthens the case for that rate hike. This week the second argument won.
Silver falls harder, yet August was a good month
Silver lost 2.39 percent on Tuesday, more than gold. That pattern is familiar. Silver is a smaller market and, alongside its role as an investment, carries a substantial industrial leg, which makes it move more violently in both directions. Anyone wanting to sell silver, whether cutlery, jewellery or coins, notices that the gap between a good and a less good day is wider there.
Do put the week in perspective, though. Across the whole month of August gold finished around 10 percent higher and silver did better still. The pullback of recent days eats into a strong month, it does not erase it. The all time record dates from late January 2026, when gold reached 5,589.38 dollars per troy ounce. Today’s price sits clearly below that.
What this means for anyone selling old gold
This week is packed with American labour market figures. Tuesday brings job openings and manufacturing activity, Wednesday the private payroll data, Thursday jobless claims and the services sector, and Friday the full August employment report. Each of those numbers can tip rate expectations again, and with them the price, in either direction. Anyone looking to sell old gold does not need to follow that calendar closely, but now knows why the price looks jumpy these days.
In practical terms little changes about how you prepare. The carat purity and the exact weight determine the lion’s share of what you receive. Anyone wanting to sell jewellery is therefore well advised to be clear on those two points and to have the valuation start from the price on the day itself.
A piece of war news is no guarantee of a higher gold price. As long as the market is watching interest rates above all, an escalation can even push the price lower. When you sell, always compare against the price on the same day and not against a peak from months ago.